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Celtics vs Hawks prediction NBA · Friday, April 9

Fri, Apr 9 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

116-113

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

58% win BOSwin ATL 42%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin2.5

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Friday, April 9 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 58% chance to win and projects a 116-113 score (Celtics – Hawks), about 228 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Hawks L3, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Hawks 113 – 116 Celtics, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / BOS +6.6 per game

-3.9

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Hawks

-2.5

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Celtics win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSATL

116.1

Points scored / game

119.0

108.3

Points allowed / game

115.8

46.5 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

38.6 %

3-point %

34.8 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

76.0 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

41.4

27.8

Assists / game

32.2

9.0

Steals / game

10.2

3.8

Blocks / game

3.6

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 58% · ATL 42%

ESPN BPI

BOS 52% · ATL 48%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		ATL
3-1	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	119.0
108.3	Points allowed / game	115.8
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W3	Current streak	L3
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.