Celtics vs Hawks prediction NBA · Friday, February 5
At a glance
The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Friday, February 5 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 53% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Celtics – Hawks), about 227 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Hawks L3, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hawks 113 – 114 Celtics, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
BOSATL
Players to watch
Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / gameJayson TatumF · #08.0assistsJayson TatumF · #06.2reboundsHawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assistsJalen JohnsonF · #19.6reboundsRecent form
BOS
125-120 OTL
121-113W
107-103W
134-99W
125-124 OTATL
132-125W
128-81L
121-114L120-110L
129-117Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
ATL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| BOS | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 116.1 | Points scored / game | 119.0 |
| 108.3 | Points allowed / game | 115.8 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.7 |
| W3 | Current streak | L3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 56-26 (+7.7) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.4) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Celtics
Injury report Hawks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.