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Hawks vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 8:00 PM ETTD Garden

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-118

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

28% win ATLwin BOS 72%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin7.1

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Friday, November 27 at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 72% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Hawks – Celtics), about 228 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Celtics W3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Celtics 118 – 111 Hawks, a margin of about 7.1 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / ATL +2.7 per game

+3.9

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Celtics

+7.1

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Hawks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

ATLBOS

119.0

Points scored / game

116.1

115.8

Points allowed / game

108.3

46.9 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

34.8 %

3-point %

38.6 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

72.8 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

44.3

32.2

Assists / game

27.8

10.2

Steals / game

9.0

3.6

Blocks / game

3.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 28% · BOS 72%

ESPN BPI

ATL 37% · BOS 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		BOS
2-3	Record	3-1
119.0	Points scored / game	116.1
115.8	Points allowed / game	108.3
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L3	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.