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Pelicans vs Jazz prediction NBA · Thursday, April 8

Thu, Apr 8 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, GCSEN, Pelicans.com
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-4 · away
Projected score
119-117
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · home
58% win NOwin UTAH 42%
FavoriteNO
Projected margin2.4
Projected total237
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Thursday, April 8 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 58% chance to win and projects a 119-117 score (Pelicans – Jazz), about 237 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Jazz L3, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yves Missi (Pelicans), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Jazz 117 – 119 Pelicans, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 237 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pelicans' defense allows clearly fewer points (120.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz
Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / NO -4.1 per game
-2.9
Home-court advantageJazz at home
+2.3
InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · NO: 1 out, 1 questionable
-1.8
Expected marginfor Jazz
-2.4

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+
16%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Pelicans win by 10+
27%

Stat comparison Current season

NOUTAH
115.7
Points scored / game
116.1
120.5
Points allowed / game
124.3
46.5 %
Field goal %
45.4 %
29.0 %
3-point %
33.9 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
34.8
83.6 %
Free throw %
76.6 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
46.8
23.5
Assists / game
26.8
12.3
Steals / game
5.0
4.8
Blocks / game
6.4
16.5
Turnovers / game
17.0

Players to watch

Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds
Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT

Head-to-head

UTAH lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 23NO119 - 120UTAHNov 4UTAHupcomingNOMar 1UTAHupcomingNOApr 8NOthis gameUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NO 58% · UTAH 42%
ESPN BPI
NO 38% · UTAH 62%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

NOUTAH
0-4Record1-4
115.7Points scored / game116.1
120.5Points allowed / game124.3
-4.1Adjusted margin / game-7.0
L4Current streakL3
0-4Last 10 games1-4
0-2 roadHome / road record1-3 home
26-56 (-4.5)Last season22-60 (-8.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Yves Missi COut
Jordan Poole GDay-To-Day

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.