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Jazz vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · away
Projected score
115-122
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-4 · home
29% win UTAHwin NO 71%
FavoriteNO
Projected margin7.0
Projected total237
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Wednesday, November 4 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 71% chance to win and projects a 115-122 score (Jazz – Pelicans), about 237 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pelicans are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 122 – 115 Jazz, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 237 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pelicans' defense allows clearly fewer points (120.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / UTAH -7.0 per game
+2.9
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
InjuriesNO: 1 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable
+1.8
Expected marginfor Pelicans
+7.0

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
41%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Jazz win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHNO
116.1
Points scored / game
115.7
124.3
Points allowed / game
120.5
45.4 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
33.9 %
3-point %
29.0 %
34.8
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
76.6 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
44.3
26.8
Assists / game
23.5
5.0
Steals / game
12.3
6.4
Blocks / game
4.8
17.0
Turnovers / game
16.5

Players to watch

Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91

Head-to-head

UTAH lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 23NO119 - 120UTAHNov 4UTAHthis gameNOMar 1UTAHupcomingNOApr 8NOupcomingUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
UTAH 29% · NO 71%
ESPN BPI
UTAH 50% · NO 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAHNO
1-4Record0-4
116.1Points scored / game115.7
124.3Points allowed / game120.5
-7.0Adjusted margin / game-4.1
L3Current streakL4
1-4Last 10 games0-4
0-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
22-60 (-8.4)Last season26-56 (-4.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Yves Missi COut
Jordan Poole GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.