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Suns vs Warriors prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6

Tue, Apr 6 · 11:00 PM ETChase Center · NBC

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

113-114

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

46% win PHXwin GS 54%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin1.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Tuesday, April 6 at 11:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 54% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Suns – Warriors), about 227 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Warriors W2, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Warriors 114 – 113 Suns, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / PHX -1.4 per game

+0.7

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Warriors

+1.2

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

24%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Suns win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXGS

111.9

Points scored / game

115.5

113.6

Points allowed / game

116.4

45.6 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

31.9 %

3-point %

36.9 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

73.9 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

43.8

25.3

Assists / game

25.6

8.7

Steals / game

9.6

5.3

Blocks / game

3.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

PHX lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 46% · GS 54%

ESPN BPI

PHX 33% · GS 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		GS
1-2	Record	2-3
111.9	Points scored / game	115.5
113.6	Points allowed / game	116.4
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L1	Current streak	W2
1-2	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.