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Warriors vs Suns prediction NBA · Monday, December 28

Mon, Dec 28 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Arizona's Family CBS5, Suns Live, KPHE, KPHO

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

110-115

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

34% win GSwin PHX 66%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin5.0

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Monday, December 28 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 66% chance to win and projects a 110-115 score (Warriors – Suns), about 226 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Suns L1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Suns, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Suns 115 – 110 Warriors, a margin of about 5.0 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / GS -0.8 per game

-0.7

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Suns

+5.0

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Warriors win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

GSPHX

115.5

Points scored / game

111.9

116.4

Points allowed / game

113.6

45.0 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

36.9 %

3-point %

31.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

82.2 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

39.7

25.6

Assists / game

25.3

9.6

Steals / game

8.7

3.8

Blocks / game

5.3

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

PHX lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 34% · PHX 66%

ESPN BPI

GS 47% · PHX 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		PHX
2-3	Record	1-2
115.5	Points scored / game	111.9
116.4	Points allowed / game	113.6
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W2	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-2
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.