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Celtics vs Knicks prediction NBA · Sunday, April 4

Sun, Apr 4 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · NBC

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

113-112

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

51% win BOSwin NY 49%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin0.5

Projected total224

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Sunday, April 4 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 51% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (Celtics – Knicks), about 224 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Knicks W2, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Knicks 112 – 113 Celtics, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / BOS +6.6 per game

-2.8

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Knicks

-0.5

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Celtics win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSNY

116.1

Points scored / game

114.5

108.3

Points allowed / game

110.0

46.5 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

38.6 %

3-point %

35.9 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.0 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

48.2

27.8

Assists / game

26.8

9.0

Steals / game

7.2

3.8

Blocks / game

4.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

BOS lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 51% · NY 49%

ESPN BPI

BOS 47% · NY 53%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

BOS		NY
3-1	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	114.5
108.3	Points allowed / game	110.0
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W3	Current streak	W2
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.