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Knicks vs Celtics prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 13

Wed, Jan 13 · 7:00 PM ETTD Garden · ESPN
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · away
Projected score
109-114
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
3-1 · home
34% win NYwin BOS 66%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin5.1
Projected total224
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Wednesday, January 13 at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 66% chance to win and projects a 109-114 score (Knicks – Celtics), about 224 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Celtics W3, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Celtics 114 – 109 Knicks, a margin of about 5.1 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / NY +3.8 per game
+2.8
Home-court advantageCeltics at home
+2.3
InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Celtics
+5.1

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+
35%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Knicks win by 10+
11%

Stat comparison Current season

NYBOS
114.5
Points scored / game
116.1
110.0
Points allowed / game
108.3
42.2 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
35.9 %
3-point %
38.6 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
41.5
75.8 %
Free throw %
76.0 %
48.2
Rebounds / game
44.3
26.8
Assists / game
27.8
7.2
Steals / game
9.0
4.4
Blocks / game
3.8
14.8
Turnovers / game
15.5

Players to watch

Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds
Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game
Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists
Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127
BOS
WPHI125-120 OTLDET121-113WNY107-103WCHI134-99WBKN125-124 OT

Head-to-head

BOS lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 23NY103 - 107BOSJan 13NYthis gameBOSMar 14BOSupcomingNYApr 4BOSupcomingNY

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NY 34% · BOS 66%
ESPN BPI
NY 43% · BOS 57%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NYBOS
2-3Record3-1
114.5Points scored / game116.1
110.0Points allowed / game108.3
+3.8Adjusted margin / game+6.6
W2Current streakW3
2-3Last 10 games3-1
1-1 roadHome / road record3-0 home
53-29 (+6.3)Last season56-26 (+7.7)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.