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Hawks vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 8:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-116

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

36% win ATLwin TOR 64%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin4.6

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Friday, April 2 at 8:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 64% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (Hawks – Raptors), about 228 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Raptors W1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Raptors, but the Hawks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Raptors 116 – 112 Hawks, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / ATL +2.7 per game

+2.3

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Raptors

+4.6

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Hawks win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLTOR

119.0

Points scored / game

115.4

115.8

Points allowed / game

109.5

46.9 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

34.8 %

3-point %

30.4 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

72.8 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

45.8

32.2

Assists / game

27.3

10.2

Steals / game

14.3

3.6

Blocks / game

5.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 36% · TOR 64%

ESPN BPI

ATL 38% · TOR 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		TOR
2-3	Record	3-1
119.0	Points scored / game	115.4
115.8	Points allowed / game	109.5
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
L3	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.