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Raptors vs Hawks prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 16

Tue, Feb 16 · 8:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · NBC

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

114-115

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

50% win TORwin ATL 50%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin0.0

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Tuesday, February 16 at 8:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 50% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Raptors – Hawks), about 228 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Hawks L3, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Hawks 115 – 114 Raptors, a margin of about 0.0 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / TOR +5.0 per game

-2.3

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Hawks

+0.0

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Raptors win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

TORATL

115.4

Points scored / game

119.0

109.5

Points allowed / game

115.8

44.2 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

30.4 %

3-point %

34.8 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

79.0 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

41.4

27.3

Assists / game

32.2

14.3

Steals / game

10.2

5.5

Blocks / game

3.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 50% · ATL 50%

ESPN BPI

TOR 53% · ATL 47%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

TOR		ATL
3-1	Record	2-3
115.4	Points scored / game	119.0
109.5	Points allowed / game	115.8
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W1	Current streak	L3
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.