Hawks vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, February 26
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Friday, February 26 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 69% chance to win and projects a 110-117 score (Hawks – Raptors), about 227 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Raptors W1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Raptors, but the Hawks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Raptors 117 – 110 Hawks, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
ATLTOR
Players to watch
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assistsJalen JohnsonF · #19.6reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
ATL
132-125W
128-81L
121-114L120-110L
129-117TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W129-99Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| ATL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 119.0 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 115.8 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +2.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 46-36 (+2.4) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Hawks
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.