Suns vs Spurs prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Wednesday, March 31 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 78% chance to win and projects a 108-118 score (Suns – Spurs), about 227 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Spurs W3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 118 – 108 Suns, a margin of about 9.8 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PHXSA
Players to watch
Suns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsSpurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsRecent form
PHX
123-103L
119-116L
124-83W
131-122L
125-114SA116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W117-111 OTHead-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| PHX | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 111.9 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 113.6 | Points allowed / game | 111.1 |
| -1.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.6 |
| L1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 1-2 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 45-37 (+1.5) | Last season | 62-20 (+8.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Suns
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.