Spurs vs Suns prediction NBA · Monday, November 9
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Monday, November 9 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 66% chance to win and projects a 116-111 score (Spurs – Suns), about 227 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Suns L1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 111 – 116 Spurs, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SAPHX
Players to watch
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsSuns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsRecent form
SA
116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W
117-111 OTPHX
123-103L119-116L
124-83W
131-122L125-114Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-2 |
| 118.9 | Points scored / game | 111.9 |
| 111.1 | Points allowed / game | 113.6 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.4 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 1-2 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 62-20 (+8.3) | Last season | 45-37 (+1.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Spurs
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.