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Suns vs Spurs prediction NBA · Monday, March 29

Mon, Mar 29 · 9:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · NBCSN

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

107-118

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

18% win PHXwin SA 82%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin11.4

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, March 29 at 9:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 82% chance to win and projects a 107-118 score (Suns – Spurs), about 225 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Spurs W3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Spurs 118 – 107 Suns, a margin of about 11.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / PHX -1.4 per game

+8.1

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Spurs

+11.4

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

55%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXSA

111.9

Points scored / game

118.9

113.6

Points allowed / game

111.1

45.6 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

31.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

73.9 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

45.0

25.3

Assists / game

28.2

8.7

Steals / game

9.8

5.3

Blocks / game

6.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 18% · SA 82%

ESPN BPI

PHX 19% · SA 81%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		SA
1-2	Record	3-2
111.9	Points scored / game	118.9
113.6	Points allowed / game	111.1
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L1	Current streak	W3
1-2	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.