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Bulls vs Wizards prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31

Wed, Mar 31 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

117-118

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

46% win CHIwin WSH 54%

FavoriteWSH

Projected margin1.2

Projected total235

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Wednesday, March 31 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Wizards a 54% chance to win and projects a 117-118 score (Bulls – Wizards), about 235 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Wizards L2, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Wizards 118 – 117 Bulls, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Wizards and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / CHI -7.2 per game

-0.6

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Wizards

+1.2

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

24%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bulls win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

CHIWSH

115.6

Points scored / game

113.1

124.1

Points allowed / game

122.2

42.1 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

27.6 %

3-point %

28.5 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

78.6 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

24.4

Assists / game

25.8

9.0

Steals / game

7.4

4.8

Blocks / game

5.6

17.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

WSH lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 46% · WSH 54%

ESPN BPI

CHI 34% · WSH 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		WSH
1-4	Record	2-3
115.6	Points scored / game	113.1
124.1	Points allowed / game	122.2
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L3	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.