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Pacers vs Bulls prediction NBA · Monday, March 29

Mon, Mar 29 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-117

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

44% win INDwin CHI 56%

FavoriteCHI

Projected margin1.9

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Monday, March 29 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bulls a 56% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Pacers – Bulls), about 233 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Bulls L3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Patrick Williams (Bulls)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Bulls 117 – 116 Pacers, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Bulls and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / IND -4.7 per game

-2.4

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+2.0

Expected marginfor Bulls

+1.9

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pacers win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

INDCHI

113.2

Points scored / game

115.6

118.8

Points allowed / game

124.1

47.1 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

31.2 %

3-point %

27.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

72.7 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

44.8

29.4

Assists / game

24.4

6.4

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

4.8

14.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 44% · CHI 56%

ESPN BPI

IND 69% · CHI 31%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

IND		CHI
2-3	Record	1-4
113.2	Points scored / game	115.6
118.8	Points allowed / game	124.1
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L2	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.