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Bulls vs Pacers prediction NBA · Monday, January 4

Mon, Jan 4 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · NBCSN
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
1-4 · away
Projected score
115-118
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · home
41% win CHIwin IND 59%
FavoriteIND
Projected margin2.7
Projected total233
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Monday, January 4 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pacers a 59% chance to win and projects a 115-118 score (Bulls – Pacers), about 233 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Pacers L2, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pacers, but the Bulls have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pacers 118 – 115 Bulls, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

  • The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / CHI -7.2 per game
+2.4
Home-court advantagePacers at home
+2.3
InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable
-2.0
Expected marginfor Pacers
+2.7

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+
28%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Bulls win by 10+
15%

Stat comparison Current season

CHIIND
115.6
Points scored / game
113.2
124.1
Points allowed / game
118.8
42.1 %
Field goal %
47.1 %
27.6 %
3-point %
31.2 %
42.0
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
78.6 %
Free throw %
72.7 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
44.0
24.4
Assists / game
29.4
9.0
Steals / game
6.4
4.8
Blocks / game
4.8
17.8
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHI
LTOR135-92WMIL132-125LWSH124-120LBOS134-99LNY133-127
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 28INDupcomingCHIJan 4CHIthis gameINDJan 26CHIupcomingINDMar 29INDupcomingCHI

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
CHI 41% · IND 59%
ESPN BPI
CHI 24% · IND 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHIIND
1-4Record2-3
115.6Points scored / game113.2
124.1Points allowed / game118.8
-7.2Adjusted margin / game-4.7
L3Current streakL2
1-4Last 10 games2-3
1-2 roadHome / road record0-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)Last season19-63 (-8.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut
Nic Claxton COut
Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.