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Pacers vs Bulls prediction NBA · Saturday, November 28

Sat, Nov 28 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · DAZN IND
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · away
Projected score
114-117
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
1-4 · home
39% win INDwin CHI 61%
FavoriteCHI
Projected margin3.5
Projected total232
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Saturday, November 28 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bulls a 61% chance to win and projects a 114-117 score (Pacers – Bulls), about 232 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Bulls L3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Patrick Williams (Bulls)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Bulls are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bulls 117 – 114 Pacers, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Bulls and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / IND -4.7 per game
-2.4
Home-court advantageBulls at home
+2.3
Back-to-backPacers played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable
+2.0
Expected marginfor Bulls
+3.5

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+
30%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Pacers win by 10+
14%

Stat comparison Current season

INDCHI
113.2
Points scored / game
115.6
118.8
Points allowed / game
124.1
47.1 %
Field goal %
42.1 %
31.2 %
3-point %
27.6 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
42.0
72.7 %
Free throw %
78.6 %
44.0
Rebounds / game
44.8
29.4
Assists / game
24.4
6.4
Steals / game
9.0
4.8
Blocks / game
4.8
14.8
Turnovers / game
17.8

Players to watch

Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds
Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109
CHI
LTOR135-92WMIL132-125LWSH124-120LBOS134-99LNY133-127

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 28INDthis gameCHIJan 4CHIupcomingINDJan 26CHIupcomingINDMar 29INDupcomingCHI

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
IND 39% · CHI 61%
ESPN BPI
IND 64% · CHI 36%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

INDCHI
2-3Record1-4
113.2Points scored / game115.6
118.8Points allowed / game124.1
-4.7Adjusted margin / game-7.2
L2Current streakL3
2-3Last 10 games1-4
2-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)Last season31-51 (-5.2)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut
Nic Claxton COut
Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.