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Warriors vs Nets prediction NBA · Monday, March 29

Mon, Mar 29 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES)

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-110

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

68% win GSwin BKN 32%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin5.7

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Monday, March 29 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 68% chance to win and projects a 116-110 score (Warriors – Nets), about 225 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Nets L4, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Nets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nets 110 – 116 Warriors, a margin of about 5.7 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / GS -0.8 per game

-7.7

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Nets

-5.7

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Warriors win by 10+

37%

Stat comparison Current season

GSBKN

115.5

Points scored / game

108.0

116.4

Points allowed / game

117.9

45.0 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

36.9 %

3-point %

36.7 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

82.2 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

43.5

25.6

Assists / game

24.0

9.6

Steals / game

10.0

3.8

Blocks / game

4.0

16.8

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 68% · BKN 32%

ESPN BPI

GS 74% · BKN 26%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		BKN
2-3	Record	0-4
115.5	Points scored / game	108.0
116.4	Points allowed / game	117.9
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
W2	Current streak	L4
2-3	Last 10 games	0-4
2-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.