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Nets vs Warriors prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 8:30 PM ETChase Center · DAZN (YES)

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

109-118

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

24% win BKNwin GS 76%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin8.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Saturday, January 2 at 8:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 76% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (Nets – Warriors), about 227 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Warriors W2, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Warriors start with a clear edge. The model projects Warriors 118 – 109 Nets, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs -8.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / BKN -8.4 per game

+7.7

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Warriors

+8.7

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

46%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNGS

108.0

Points scored / game

115.5

117.9

Points allowed / game

116.4

42.9 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

36.7 %

3-point %

36.9 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.6 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

43.8

24.0

Assists / game

25.6

10.0

Steals / game

9.6

4.0

Blocks / game

3.8

17.5

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 24% · GS 76%

ESPN BPI

BKN 25% · GS 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		GS
0-4	Record	2-3
108.0	Points scored / game	115.5
117.9	Points allowed / game	116.4
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L4	Current streak	W2
0-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.