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Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28

Sun, Mar 28 · 7:30 PM ETTarget Center · NBC
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · away
Projected score
111-114
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · home
42% win OKCwin MIN 58%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin2.6
Projected total225
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Sunday, March 28 at 7:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 58% chance to win and projects a 111-114 score (Thunder – Timberwolves), about 225 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Thunder have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 114 – 111 Thunder, a margin of about 2.6 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

  • The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / OKC +7.6 per game
-2.4
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable
+2.7
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+2.6

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
28%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Thunder win by 10+
16%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCMIN
115.8
Points scored / game
118.7
106.9
Points allowed / game
112.6
44.0 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
30.9 %
3-point %
38.4 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
86.4 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
51.6
22.0
Assists / game
27.0
8.4
Steals / game
9.2
6.8
Blocks / game
4.4
13.6
Turnovers / game
16.2

Players to watch

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 25MINupcomingOKCDec 25OKCupcomingMINMar 2MINupcomingOKCMar 28OKCthis gameMIN

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
OKC 42% · MIN 58%
ESPN BPI
OKC 52% · MIN 48%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

OKCMIN
4-1Record3-2
115.8Points scored / game118.7
106.9Points allowed / game112.6
+7.6Adjusted margin / game+5.2
L1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games3-2
1-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
64-18 (+11.1)Last season49-33 (+3.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.