Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Friday, December 25
At a glance
The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Friday, December 25 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 58% chance to win and projects a 111-114 score (Thunder – Timberwolves), about 225 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Timberwolves 114 – 111 Thunder, a margin of about 2.6 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCMIN
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsTimberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
MIN
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| OKC | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 118.7 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 112.6 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.2 |
| L1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 49-33 (+3.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Timberwolves
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.