Timberwolves vs Thunder prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 2
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Tuesday, March 2 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 56% chance to win and projects a 111-113 score (Timberwolves – Thunder), about 225 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Thunder L1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder) and Nikola Topic (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Thunder 113 – 111 Timberwolves, a margin of about 2.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.
- The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINOKC
Players to watch
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
MIN
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| MIN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 118.7 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 112.6 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| +5.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| L2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 49-33 (+3.4) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.