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Pistons vs Hornets prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24

Wed, Mar 24 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

113-108

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

67% win DETwin CHA 33%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin5.4

Projected total221

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Wednesday, March 24 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 67% chance to win and projects a 113-108 score (Pistons – Hornets), about 221 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Hornets L1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hornets 108 – 113 Pistons, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / DET +6.5 per game

-5.4

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.4

Expected marginfor Hornets

-5.4

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Pistons win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

DETCHA

115.4

Points scored / game

111.6

107.8

Points allowed / game

110.3

45.9 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

37.9 %

3-point %

30.6 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

74.4 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

47.4

27.0

Assists / game

20.6

8.0

Steals / game

6.8

7.2

Blocks / game

5.2

15.6

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

DET lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 67% · CHA 33%

ESPN BPI

DET 64% · CHA 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		CHA
4-1	Record	3-2
115.4	Points scored / game	111.6
107.8	Points allowed / game	110.3
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.