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Hornets vs Pistons prediction NBA · Saturday, March 20

Sat, Mar 20 · 8:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · DAZN CHA
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 · away
Projected score
105-115
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4-1 · home
21% win CHAwin DET 79%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin10.0
Projected total221
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Saturday, March 20 at 8:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 79% chance to win and projects a 105-115 score (Hornets – Pistons), about 221 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Pistons W1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Pistons 115 – 105 Hornets, a margin of about 10.0 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pistons' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / CHA +1.1 per game
+5.4
Home-court advantagePistons at home
+2.3
InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 0 questionable
+2.4
Expected marginfor Pistons
+10.0

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+
50%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Hornets win by 10+
5%

Stat comparison Current season

CHADET
111.6
Points scored / game
115.4
110.3
Points allowed / game
107.8
41.7 %
Field goal %
45.9 %
30.6 %
3-point %
37.9 %
43.2
3-pointers attempted / game
36.4
85.2 %
Free throw %
74.4 %
47.4
Rebounds / game
46.8
20.6
Assists / game
27.0
6.8
Steals / game
8.0
5.2
Blocks / game
7.2
19.0
Turnovers / game
15.6

Players to watch

Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds
Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHA
WBKN110-103LATL128-81WMIA115-110WWSH110-103LDET97-89
DET
WBOS121-113WMIA128-111WPHI106-93LNY111-97WCHA97-89

Head-to-head

DET lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 28CHA89 - 97DETNov 2DETupcomingCHAMar 20CHAthis gameDETMar 24DETupcomingCHA

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
CHA 21% · DET 79%
ESPN BPI
CHA 27% · DET 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHADET
3-2Record4-1
111.6Points scored / game115.4
110.3Points allowed / game107.8
+1.1Adjusted margin / game+6.5
L1Current streakW1
3-2Last 10 games4-1
1-1 roadHome / road record2-0 home
44-38 (+4.8)Last season60-22 (+8.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut
Coby White GOut
Grant Williams FOut
Kylan Boswell GOut

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut
Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.