Mavericks vs Clippers prediction NBA · Monday, March 22
At a glance
The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Monday, March 22 at 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 70% chance to win and projects a 108-115 score (Mavericks – Clippers), about 223 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Clippers L3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers) and Max Strus (Clippers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Clippers, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Clippers 115 – 108 Mavericks, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALLAC
Players to watch
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsClippers
Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / gameDarius GarlandG · #106.5assists
Rui HachimuraF · #286.0reboundsRecent form
DAL
128-110W
121-105L
122-106W
113-109W
120-96LAC
122-110W
121-96L
125-117L108-101L103-87Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
LAC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| DAL | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 114.1 | Points scored / game | 112.0 |
| 117.4 | Points allowed / game | 111.5 |
| -2.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.4 |
| W2 | Current streak | L3 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 1-3 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 26-56 (-5.5) | Last season | 42-40 (+1.1) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Clippers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.