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Clippers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, November 21

Sat, Nov 21 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

113-112

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

51% win LACwin DAL 49%

FavoriteLAC

Projected margin0.4

Projected total224

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Saturday, November 21 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 51% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (Clippers – Mavericks), about 224 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 112 – 113 Clippers, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / LAC +0.4 per game

-3.2

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-0.4

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Clippers win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

LACDAL

112.0

Points scored / game

114.1

111.5

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.9 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

39.0 %

3-point %

34.6 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

78.6 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

25.0

Assists / game

27.6

12.5

Steals / game

9.0

4.5

Blocks / game

7.4

23.0

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 51% · DAL 49%

ESPN BPI

LAC 32% · DAL 68%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

LAC		DAL
1-3	Record	3-2
112.0	Points scored / game	114.1
111.5	Points allowed / game	117.4
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L3	Current streak	W2
1-3	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.