Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Grizzlies vs Warriors prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 17

Wed, Mar 17 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

115-114

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

54% win MEMwin GS 46%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin1.4

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Wednesday, March 17 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 54% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Grizzlies – Warriors), about 229 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Warriors W2, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Warriors 114 – 115 Grizzlies, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / MEM -1.8 per game

+1.0

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Warriors

-1.4

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Grizzlies win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMGS

115.2

Points scored / game

115.5

117.3

Points allowed / game

116.4

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

39.1 %

3-point %

36.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

82.8 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

43.8

25.0

Assists / game

25.6

6.3

Steals / game

9.6

6.3

Blocks / game

3.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

MEM lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 54% · GS 46%

ESPN BPI

MEM 30% · GS 70%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MEM		GS
4-0	Record	2-3
115.2	Points scored / game	115.5
117.3	Points allowed / game	116.4
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W4	Current streak	W2
4-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.