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Warriors vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Thursday, November 19

Thu, Nov 19 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

113-117

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

36% win GSwin MEM 64%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin4.4

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Thursday, November 19 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 64% chance to win and projects a 113-117 score (Warriors – Grizzlies), about 229 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies and the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Grizzlies 117 – 113 Warriors, a margin of about 4.4 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies and the Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / GS -0.8 per game

-1.0

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+4.4

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Warriors win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

GSMEM

115.5

Points scored / game

115.2

116.4

Points allowed / game

117.3

45.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

36.9 %

3-point %

39.1 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

82.2 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

50.0

25.6

Assists / game

25.0

9.6

Steals / game

6.3

3.8

Blocks / game

6.3

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

MEM lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 36% · MEM 64%

ESPN BPI

GS 48% · MEM 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		MEM
2-3	Record	4-0
115.5	Points scored / game	115.2
116.4	Points allowed / game	117.3
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W2	Current streak	W4
2-3	Last 10 games	4-0
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.