Cavaliers vs Warriors prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 16
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Tuesday, March 16 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 62% chance to win and projects a 118-114 score (Cavaliers – Warriors), about 232 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Warriors W2, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Cavaliers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Warriors 114 – 118 Cavaliers, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLEGS
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W119-114
GS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| CLE | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.8 |
| W3 | Current streak | W2 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 37-45 (-0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.