Warriors vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Saturday, December 12
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Saturday, December 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 75% chance to win and projects a 112-120 score (Warriors – Cavaliers), about 232 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Cavaliers dominate this matchup. The model projects Cavaliers 120 – 112 Warriors, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSCLE
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W127-125 OTW
121-111
GS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.