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Pacers vs Nets prediction NBA · Monday, March 15

Mon, Mar 15 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES), DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

113-114

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

48% win INDwin BKN 52%

FavoriteBKN

Projected margin0.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Monday, March 15 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nets a 52% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Pacers – Nets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Nets L4, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nets 114 – 113 Pacers, a margin of about 0.8 points in favor of the Nets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' offense (113.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / IND -4.7 per game

-3.7

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · IND: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Nets

+0.8

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pacers win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

INDBKN

113.2

Points scored / game

108.0

118.8

Points allowed / game

117.9

47.1 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

31.2 %

3-point %

36.7 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

72.7 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

43.5

29.4

Assists / game

24.0

6.4

Steals / game

10.0

4.8

Blocks / game

4.0

14.8

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

IND lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 48% · BKN 52%

ESPN BPI

IND 67% · BKN 33%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

IND		BKN
2-3	Record	0-4
113.2	Points scored / game	108.0
118.8	Points allowed / game	117.9
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L2	Current streak	L4
2-3	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.