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Warriors vs Lakers prediction NBA · Sunday, March 14

Sun, Mar 14 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · NBC

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-119

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

29% win GSwin LAL 71%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin7.1

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Sunday, March 14 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 71% chance to win and projects a 111-119 score (Warriors – Lakers), about 230 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Lakers W1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Lakers, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Lakers 119 – 111 Warriors, a margin of about 7.1 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / GS -0.8 per game

+4.2

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 2 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Lakers

+7.1

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Warriors win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

GSLAL

115.5

Points scored / game

118.4

116.4

Points allowed / game

114.3

45.0 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

36.9 %

3-point %

39.2 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

82.2 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

38.0

25.6

Assists / game

24.0

9.6

Steals / game

10.8

3.8

Blocks / game

5.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

LAL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 29% · LAL 71%

ESPN BPI

GS 43% · LAL 57%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		LAL
2-3	Record	4-1
115.5	Points scored / game	118.4
116.4	Points allowed / game	114.3
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
2-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.