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Lakers vs Warriors prediction NBA · Friday, October 30

Fri, Oct 30 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center · Prime Video

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

116-114

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

58% win LALwin GS 42%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin2.5

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Friday, October 30 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 58% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Lakers – Warriors), about 230 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Warriors W2, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Warriors 114 – 116 Lakers, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / LAL +3.5 per game

-4.2

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Warriors

-2.5

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Lakers win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

LALGS

118.4

Points scored / game

115.5

114.3

Points allowed / game

116.4

52.9 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

39.2 %

3-point %

36.9 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

79.1 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

43.8

24.0

Assists / game

25.6

10.8

Steals / game

9.6

5.8

Blocks / game

3.8

16.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

LAL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 58% · GS 42%

ESPN BPI

LAL 53% · GS 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		GS
4-1	Record	2-3
118.4	Points scored / game	115.5
114.3	Points allowed / game	116.4
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W1	Current streak	W2
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.