Pistons vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, March 14
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Sunday, March 14 at 5:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 56% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Pistons – Raptors), about 221 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Raptors W1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Raptors 112 – 110 Pistons, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Pistons need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DETTOR
Players to watch
Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / gameCade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
DET
121-113W
128-111W
106-93L
111-97W
97-89TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
TORSecond opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DET | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 107.8 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +6.5 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 60-22 (+8.2) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pistons
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.