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Raptors vs Pistons prediction NBA · Friday, November 20

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:30 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · Prime Video

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

109-114

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

36% win TORwin DET 64%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin4.4

Projected total223

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Friday, November 20 at 7:30 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 64% chance to win and projects a 109-114 score (Raptors – Pistons), about 223 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Pistons W1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pistons 114 – 109 Raptors, a margin of about 4.4 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / TOR +5.0 per game

+1.5

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Pistons

+4.4

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Raptors win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

TORDET

115.4

Points scored / game

115.4

109.5

Points allowed / game

107.8

44.2 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

30.4 %

3-point %

37.9 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

79.0 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.3

Assists / game

27.0

14.3

Steals / game

8.0

5.5

Blocks / game

7.2

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 36% · DET 64%

ESPN BPI

TOR 28% · DET 72%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		DET
3-1	Record	4-1
115.4	Points scored / game	115.4
109.5	Points allowed / game	107.8
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W1	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.