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Pistons vs Raptors prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 12

Tue, Jan 12 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

111-112

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

49% win DETwin TOR 51%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin0.2

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Tuesday, January 12 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 51% chance to win and projects a 111-112 score (Pistons – Raptors), about 223 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Raptors W1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 112 – 111 Pistons, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pistons need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / DET +6.5 per game

-1.5

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Raptors

+0.2

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pistons win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

DETTOR

115.4

Points scored / game

115.4

107.8

Points allowed / game

109.5

45.9 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

37.9 %

3-point %

30.4 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

74.4 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

45.8

27.0

Assists / game

27.3

8.0

Steals / game

14.3

7.2

Blocks / game

5.5

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 49% · TOR 51%

ESPN BPI

DET 47% · TOR 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		TOR
4-1	Record	3-1
115.4	Points scored / game	115.4
107.8	Points allowed / game	109.5
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.