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Cavaliers vs Pistons prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 9

Tue, Mar 9 · 8:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · NBC, DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

112-117

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

34% win CLEwin DET 66%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin5.2

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Tuesday, March 9 at 8:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 66% chance to win and projects a 112-117 score (Cavaliers – Pistons), about 229 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Pistons W1, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Cavaliers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pistons 117 – 112 Cavaliers, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / CLE +3.0 per game

+3.5

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 2 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Pistons

+5.2

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Cavaliers win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEDET

119.6

Points scored / game

115.4

116.0

Points allowed / game

107.8

46.8 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

36.7 %

3-point %

37.9 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

79.3 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

26.3

Assists / game

27.0

8.8

Steals / game

8.0

7.5

Blocks / game

7.2

17.3

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 34% · DET 66%

ESPN BPI

CLE 37% · DET 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		DET
3-1	Record	4-1
119.6	Points scored / game	115.4
116.0	Points allowed / game	107.8
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W3	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	4-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.