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Pistons vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Monday, January 18

Mon, Jan 18 · 12:00 PM ETRocket Arena · NBC

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

115-114

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

52% win DETwin CLE 48%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin0.6

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Monday, January 18 at 12:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 52% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Pistons – Cavaliers), about 229 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Cavaliers 114 – 115 Pistons, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / DET +6.5 per game

-3.5

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 0 out, 2 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

-0.6

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pistons win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

DETCLE

115.4

Points scored / game

119.6

107.8

Points allowed / game

116.0

45.9 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

37.9 %

3-point %

36.7 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

74.4 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

47.0

27.0

Assists / game

26.3

8.0

Steals / game

8.8

7.2

Blocks / game

7.5

15.6

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 52% · CLE 48%

ESPN BPI

DET 52% · CLE 48%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		CLE
4-1	Record	3-1
115.4	Points scored / game	119.6
107.8	Points allowed / game	116.0
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W1	Current streak	W3
4-1	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.