Pelicans vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, March 6
At a glance
The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Saturday, March 6 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 73% chance to win and projects a 112-120 score (Pelicans – Grizzlies), about 232 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Grizzlies 120 – 112 Pelicans, a margin of about 7.5 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOMEM
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsGrizzlies
Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / gameTy JeromeG · #26.5assists
Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91MEM
116-98W123-103W
111-108W
123-112W110-105Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-0 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 115.2 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 117.3 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.8 |
| L4 | Current streak | W4 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 4-0 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 25-57 (-6.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Grizzlies
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.