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Grizzlies vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, November 13

Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

118-116

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · home

54% win MEMwin NO 46%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin1.3

Projected total234

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Friday, November 13 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 54% chance to win and projects a 118-116 score (Grizzlies – Pelicans), about 234 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pelicans 116 – 118 Grizzlies, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / MEM -1.8 per game

-2.3

Home-court advantagePelicans at home

+2.3

InjuriesNO: 1 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Pelicans

-1.3

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Grizzlies win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMNO

115.2

Points scored / game

115.7

117.3

Points allowed / game

120.5

45.3 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

39.1 %

3-point %

29.0 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

31.0

82.8 %

Free throw %

83.6 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

25.0

Assists / game

23.5

6.3

Steals / game

12.3

6.3

Blocks / game

4.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

16.5

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 54% · NO 46%

ESPN BPI

MEM 51% · NO 49%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		NO
4-0	Record	0-4
115.2	Points scored / game	115.7
117.3	Points allowed / game	120.5
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-4.1
W4	Current streak	L4
4-0	Last 10 games	0-4
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	26-56 (-4.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Pelicans

Yves Missi COut

Jordan Poole GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.