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Grizzlies vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Monday, December 21

Mon, Dec 21 · 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, DAZN MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
4-0 · away
Projected score
117-115
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-4 · home
59% win MEMwin NO 41%
FavoriteMEM
Projected margin2.7
Projected total232
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Monday, December 21 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 59% chance to win and projects a 117-115 score (Grizzlies – Pelicans), about 232 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans and the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pelicans 115 – 117 Grizzlies, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans and the Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / MEM -1.8 per game
-2.3
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
InjuriesNO: 3 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable
-2.7
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-2.7

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
15%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Grizzlies win by 10+
28%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMNO
115.2
Points scored / game
115.7
117.3
Points allowed / game
120.5
45.3 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
39.1 %
3-point %
29.0 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
82.8 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
50.0
Rebounds / game
44.3
25.0
Assists / game
23.5
6.3
Steals / game
12.3
6.3
Blocks / game
4.8
15.5
Turnovers / game
16.5

Players to watch

Grizzlies
Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game
Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists
Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MEM
WCHA116-98WUTAH123-103WGS111-108WSAC123-112WUTAH110-105
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 2NOupcomingMEMNov 13MEMupcomingNODec 21MEMthis gameNOMar 6NOupcomingMEM

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MEM 59% · NO 41%
ESPN BPI
MEM 51% · NO 49%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEMNO
4-0Record0-4
115.2Points scored / game115.7
117.3Points allowed / game120.5
-1.8Adjusted margin / game-4.1
W4Current streakL4
4-0Last 10 games0-4
3-0 roadHome / road record0-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)Last season26-56 (-4.5)
YesPlayed yesterdayYes

Memphis Grizzlies Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut
Jordan Poole GOut
Yves Missi COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.