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Spurs vs Rockets prediction NBA · Friday, March 5

Fri, Mar 5 · 9:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · ESPN, DAZN SAS
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
3-2 · away
Projected score
113-114
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · home
46% win SAwin HOU 54%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin1.1
Projected total227
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Friday, March 5 at 9:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 54% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Spurs – Rockets), about 227 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Rockets W5, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Rockets 114 – 113 Spurs, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

  • The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / SA +6.6 per game
+0.0
Home-court advantageRockets at home
+2.3
InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable
-1.3
Expected marginfor Rockets
+1.1

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+
24%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Spurs win by 10+
19%

Stat comparison Current season

SAHOU
118.9
Points scored / game
117.5
111.1
Points allowed / game
109.7
46.0 %
Field goal %
51.7 %
34.6 %
3-point %
40.4 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
32.2
78.3 %
Free throw %
84.7 %
45.0
Rebounds / game
44.8
28.2
Assists / game
28.2
9.8
Steals / game
10.2
6.6
Blocks / game
6.0
12.8
Turnovers / game
15.8

Players to watch

Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists
Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
SA
LOKC116-104LHOU114-110WDAL122-106WSAC130-103WUTAH117-111 OT
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100

Head-to-head

HOU lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 23HOU114 - 110SAJan 26HOUupcomingSAMar 5SAthis gameHOUMar 16SAupcomingHOU

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
SA 46% · HOU 54%
ESPN BPI
SA 53% · HOU 47%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

SAHOU
3-2Record5-0
118.9Points scored / game117.5
111.1Points allowed / game109.7
+6.6Adjusted margin / game+6.7
W3Current streakW5
3-2Last 10 games5-0
2-0 roadHome / road record2-0 home
62-20 (+8.3)Last season52-30 (+5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

San Antonio Spurs Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut
Jayden Quaintance FOut

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.