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Rockets vs Spurs prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 26

Tue, Jan 26 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · NBC

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

112-115

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

39% win HOUwin SA 61%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin3.5

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Tuesday, January 26 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 61% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Rockets – Spurs), about 227 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Spurs W3, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Spurs 115 – 112 Rockets, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / HOU +6.7 per game

-0.0

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Spurs

+3.5

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Rockets win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUSA

117.5

Points scored / game

118.9

109.7

Points allowed / game

111.1

51.7 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

40.4 %

3-point %

34.6 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

84.7 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

45.0

28.2

Assists / game

28.2

10.2

Steals / game

9.8

6.0

Blocks / game

6.6

15.8

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

HOU lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 39% · SA 61%

ESPN BPI

HOU 38% · SA 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		SA
5-0	Record	3-2
117.5	Points scored / game	118.9
109.7	Points allowed / game	111.1
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W5	Current streak	W3
5-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.