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Celtics vs Pistons prediction NBA · Friday, March 5

Fri, Mar 5 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · ESPN

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

111-112

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

44% win BOSwin DET 56%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin1.8

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Friday, March 5 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 56% chance to win and projects a 111-112 score (Celtics – Pistons), about 223 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Pistons W1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pistons 112 – 111 Celtics, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Celtics need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / BOS +6.6 per game

-0.1

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Pistons

+1.8

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Celtics win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSDET

116.1

Points scored / game

115.4

108.3

Points allowed / game

107.8

46.5 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

38.6 %

3-point %

37.9 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

76.0 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.8

Assists / game

27.0

9.0

Steals / game

8.0

3.8

Blocks / game

7.2

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

DET lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 44% · DET 56%

ESPN BPI

BOS 45% · DET 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		DET
3-1	Record	4-1
116.1	Points scored / game	115.4
108.3	Points allowed / game	107.8
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W3	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	4-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.