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Pistons vs Celtics prediction NBA · Sunday, December 20

Sun, Dec 20 · 8:00 PM ETTD Garden

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

110-113

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

41% win DETwin BOS 59%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin2.8

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Sunday, December 20 at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 59% chance to win and projects a 110-113 score (Pistons – Celtics), about 223 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Celtics W3, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Celtics 113 – 110 Pistons, a margin of about 2.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pistons need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / DET +6.5 per game

+0.1

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

+0.3

Expected marginfor Celtics

+2.8

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

28%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Pistons win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

DETBOS

115.4

Points scored / game

116.1

107.8

Points allowed / game

108.3

45.9 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

37.9 %

3-point %

38.6 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

74.4 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

27.0

Assists / game

27.8

8.0

Steals / game

9.0

7.2

Blocks / game

3.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

DET lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 41% · BOS 59%

ESPN BPI

DET 45% · BOS 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		BOS
4-1	Record	3-1
115.4	Points scored / game	116.1
107.8	Points allowed / game	108.3
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W1	Current streak	W3
4-1	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.