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Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction NBA · Thursday, March 4

Thu, Mar 4 · 7:30 PM ETState Farm Arena · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

114-117

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

39% win MEMwin ATL 61%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin3.4

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Thursday, March 4 at 7:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 61% chance to win and projects a 114-117 score (Grizzlies – Hawks), about 231 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Hawks L3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hawks, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hawks 117 – 114 Grizzlies, a margin of about 3.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / MEM -1.8 per game

+4.5

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHawks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Hawks

+3.4

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Grizzlies win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMATL

115.2

Points scored / game

119.0

117.3

Points allowed / game

115.8

45.3 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

39.1 %

3-point %

34.8 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

82.8 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

41.4

25.0

Assists / game

32.2

6.3

Steals / game

10.2

6.3

Blocks / game

3.6

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 39% · ATL 61%

ESPN BPI

MEM 31% · ATL 69%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		ATL
4-0	Record	2-3
115.2	Points scored / game	119.0
117.3	Points allowed / game	115.8
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W4	Current streak	L3
4-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.