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Hawks vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Monday, March 8

Mon, Mar 8 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

117-116

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

51% win ATLwin MEM 49%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin0.4

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Monday, March 8 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 51% chance to win and projects a 117-116 score (Hawks – Grizzlies), about 233 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Grizzlies 116 – 117 Hawks, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / ATL +2.7 per game

-4.5

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-0.4

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLMEM

119.0

Points scored / game

115.2

115.8

Points allowed / game

117.3

46.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

34.8 %

3-point %

39.1 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

72.8 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

50.0

32.2

Assists / game

25.0

10.2

Steals / game

6.3

3.6

Blocks / game

6.3

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 51% · MEM 49%

ESPN BPI

ATL 61% · MEM 39%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		MEM
2-3	Record	4-0
119.0	Points scored / game	115.2
115.8	Points allowed / game	117.3
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L3	Current streak	W4
2-3	Last 10 games	4-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.