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Bulls vs Hawks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 3

Wed, Mar 3 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
1-4 · away
Projected score
111-124
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
15% win CHIwin ATL 85%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin12.9
Projected total236
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Wednesday, March 3 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 85% chance to win and projects a 111-124 score (Bulls – Hawks), about 236 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Hawks L3, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 124 – 111 Bulls, a margin of about 12.9 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

  • The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / CHI -7.2 per game
+9.9
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable
+0.7
Expected marginfor Hawks
+12.9

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
59%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
19%
Bulls win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

CHIATL
115.6
Points scored / game
119.0
124.1
Points allowed / game
115.8
42.1 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
27.6 %
3-point %
34.8 %
42.0
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
78.6 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
41.4
24.4
Assists / game
32.2
9.0
Steals / game
10.2
4.8
Blocks / game
3.6
17.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHI
LTOR135-92WMIL132-125LWSH124-120LBOS134-99LNY133-127
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 13ATLupcomingCHIDec 29CHIupcomingATLFeb 25ATLupcomingCHIMar 3CHIthis gameATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
CHI 15% · ATL 85%
ESPN BPI
CHI 19% · ATL 81%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHIATL
1-4Record2-3
115.6Points scored / game119.0
124.1Points allowed / game115.8
-7.2Adjusted margin / game+2.7
L3Current streakL3
1-4Last 10 games2-3
1-2 roadHome / road record0-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut
Nic Claxton COut
Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.